Here are some interesting facts about U.S. presidential elections and the history of polling:

2024 Presidential Election

As of November 2, 2024 more than 78 million people have already cast their ballots through early voting, either in-person or by mail. This includes over 5.3 million votes from key swing states. 

As of 2024, there are approximately 168 million registered voters in the United States. This number fluctuates slightly as people register or move between states, but it represents a significant portion of the U.S. adult population.

The numbers are continually updated as early voting progresses, and this high level of participation is already shaping expectations for overall turnout in the 2024 U.S. presidential election

 

2020 Presidential Election

In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, 66.8% of eligible voting-age citizens participated, making it the highest voter turnout in recent decades. This significant increase was driven partly by the expanded use of early voting and mail-in ballots due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

George Washington Won Unanimously

In the first U.S. presidential election in 1789, George Washington was elected unanimously by the Electoral College, a feat that has never been repeated. He didn't belong to any political party, making him the only U.S. president without a party affiliation.

Polling's Evolution

Polling began to take shape in the 1930s with George Gallup's Gallup Poll. Gallup famously predicted Franklin D. Roosevelt's 1936 victory, challenging the dominant Literary Digest, which had a history of using biased sampling methods. Gallup’s victory solidified the use of more scientific polling methods.

The First Use of Exit Polls

The practice of exit polling began in 1967, introduced by CBS News to predict election outcomes by interviewing voters as they left polling places. While exit polls have generally been accurate, they sometimes lead to early predictions, such as the infamous 2000 election, where networks initially declared Al Gore the winner, only to retract and later announce George W. Bush as the victor.

The "Dewey Defeats Truman" Blunder

One of the most famous polling mishaps occurred in the 1948 presidential election. Most polls predicted a clear victory for Republican Thomas Dewey, but Harry Truman staged a come-from-behind win. The Chicago Tribune even printed its infamous premature headline: "Dewey Defeats Truman."

The Youngest Elected President

John F. Kennedy holds the title of the youngest elected U.S. president. He was only 43 years old when he won the 1960 election against Richard Nixon. He narrowly won with one of the closest popular votes in U.S. history, and television debates played a pivotal role in swaying public opinion.

The First Televised Presidential Debate

In 1960, the first-ever televised presidential debate took place between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. Viewers who watched on TV felt Kennedy had won, while radio listeners thought Nixon had the edge. This showcased the power of media in shaping public perception.

Polling Accuracy

Polling accuracy has evolved, but it still faces challenges. For instance, in 2016, many polls underestimated Donald Trump's support, contributing to widespread shock at his victory. However, in 2020, pollsters adjusted their models and were more accurate in predicting Joe Biden's victory, though state-level polls still showed some variability.